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Choose the country to sell in with a method: filter by demand, access, competition, logistics and risk, score the options in a matrix and validate with real buyers.
Goal: Apply the three filters and a weighted matrix to choose a main market and a backup one, and calculate each country's score.
Choosing a market is not picking the country that buys the most. A country can import a lot and still be a poor option for you: high tariff, difficult requirements, very strong competitors or risky payments. The right question is a different one: in which country can I sell my product, at a profit and with an acceptable risk, given my current capacity?
A simple method uses three filters. In filter 1, with trade data, you discard countries that barely buy your product or whose demand is falling. In filter 2 you review access: tariffs, trade agreements, health and technical requirements. In filter 3 you look at competition, prices, logistics and payment risk. That way you go from 30 countries to 10 and then to 3.
The most commonly used criteria are: size and growth of demand, tariff, access requirements, competitors and prices, distance and transport cost, cultural affinity, and stability and payment risk. A trade agreement reduces the tariff only if your product meets the rule of origin, that is, the conditions to be considered originating in the exporting country. Origin is covered in depth in the Customs taxes, trade agreements and origin course.
To compare countries, use a weighted decision matrix. You put the countries in rows and the criteria in columns. You give each criterion a weight according to its importance (the weights add up to 100%), score each country from 1 to 5 and multiply score by weight. The country with the highest score is not a verdict: it is a hypothesis you must validate with buyers. If two countries end up very close, decide by the criterion that worries you most.
One more decision remains: to concentrate or to spread out. Starting with a single market lets you learn, adapt and look after your resources. Depending on only one is risky if tariffs, rules or demand change. A good starting point is a main market, a backup one and a third under observation. How to enter the chosen market is covered in topic 3-1.
| Criterion | What to review | Where to look |
|---|---|---|
| Demand | Total imports, growth over recent years and unit value | Trade Map, UN Comtrade |
| Tariff and agreements | General tariff, tariff under the agreement, quotas and rule of origin | Market Access Map, WTO, MINCETUR |
| Access requirements | Health and technical standards, labeling, certifications | Authorities of the destination country, SENASA, trade offices |
| Competition and price | Who sells, with what share and at what value per unit | Trade Map, market studies |
| Logistics | Time, freight cost and frequency of ships or flights | Quotes from freight forwarders and shipping lines |
| Payment risk | Economic stability and the buyer's payment habits | Banks and credit insurance entities |
| Culture and business | Language, buying habits and way of negotiating | Trade offices, chambers of commerce, fairs |
Result: The United States scored 4.05, the Netherlands 3.85 and Japan 2.90. Since with other weights the top two tie at 3.85, the final decision depends on what you confirm with buyers and which requirements you can meet first.
2024
According to MINCETUR's 2024 Management Report, Peruvian exports totaled US$ 74,521 million in 2024, a record for the fourth year in a row, with growth of 15.3%. The main destinations were China (34% of the total), the United States (13%) and the European Union (11%). The same document notes 20 trade agreements in force. It matters because it shows a country that sells a lot, but concentrated in a few buyers: a policy or demand change in one of them is felt immediately.
Calculate how much of your sales would depend on a single country and define a backup market from the start.
01/03/2013
The trade agreement between the European Union, Colombia and Peru has been applied provisionally with Peru since 01/03/2013. Ecuador joined on 01/01/2017. According to the European Commission's Access2Markets portal, the EU removes tariffs on almost all Peruvian exports, except certain fruits and vegetables, and applies quotas to sensitive products. Peru lowers its own gradually, over up to 17 years. It matters because the benefit depends on the heading and on meeting the rules of origin.
Before choosing a market because of its agreement, confirm the tariff for your heading, whether there is a quota and whether your product meets the rule of origin.
Source: Comisión Europea – Access2Markets: EU-Colombia-Peru-Ecuador Trade Agreement
11/2023
In November 2023, the European Commission published on Access2Markets a sheet on Peru's trade agreements. It mentions the FTA with the United States (01/02/2009), with Canada (01/08/2009) and with China (01/03/2010), the Pacific Alliance (01/05/2016) and the CPTPP (19/09/2021). It states 22 agreements in force with 58 economies, while MINCETUR counted 20 in 2024: the number depends on how you count. It matters because each agreement has its own dates, products and rules.
Find which agreement covers your product and review its current text on MINCETUR's trade agreements site before assuming a zero tariff.
Source: Comisión Europea – Access2Markets: ficha «Peru's trade agreements» (noviembre de 2023)
Practise with the calculators, the COMEX Simulator and the review questions on the main page.
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